A STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF FIXED ODDS BETTING RULES IN SOCCER
Keywords:Fixed odds betting rules, away win, bookmakers’ probabilities
AbstractTwo simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
Archontakis, F. & Osborne, E. (2007). Playing it safe? A Fibonacci strategy for soccer betting. Journal of Sports Economics, 8(3), 295-308.
Avery, C. & Chevalier, J. (1999). Identifying investor sentiment from price paths: The case of football betting. Journal of Business, 72(4), 493-521.
Bird, R. & McCrae, M. (1987). Tests of the efficiency of racetrack betting using bookmaker odds. Management Science, 33, 1552-1562.
Clarke, S. R & Norman, J. M. (1995). Home ground advantage of individual clubs in English soccer. Statistician, 44, 509-521.
Collett, D (1991) Modelling Binary Data, Chapman and Hall, London, Chapter 3
Department of Culture, Media & Sport (2007). Taking Part: The National Survey of Culture, Leisure and Sport, Chapter 9, Gambling available from http://www.culture.gov.uk/images/research/TPMay2007_9_Gambling.pdf
Dixon, M. J. & Coles, S. G. (1997). Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market, Applied Statistics, 46(2), 265-280.
Figlewski, S. (1979). Subjective information and market efficiency in a betting market. Journal of Political Economy, 87(1), 75-88.
Forrest, D. (1999). The past and the future of British football pools. Journal of Gambling Studies, 15(2), 161-176.
Forrest, D., Goddard, J. & Simmons, R. (2005). Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 551-564
Goddard, J. A. (2005). Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 331-340.
Knight, F. H. (1965). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. New York: Harper Torchbooks.
Pankoff, L. D. (1968). Market efficiency and football betting, The Journal of Business, 41(2), 203-214.
Pope, P. F. & Peel, D. A. (1989). Prices and efficiency in a fixed-odds betting market. Economica, 56(223), 323-341
Reep, C., Pollard, R. & Benjamin, B. (1971). Skill and chance in ball games. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 134, 623-629.
Rue, H. & Salvesen, O. (2000). Prediction and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league. The Statistician, 49(3), 399-418.
Sharpe, G. (1997). Gambling on goals: A century of football betting. Mainstream, Edinburgh
Thaler, R. H. & Ziemba, W. T. (1988). Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2, 161-174.
Woodland, L. M. & Woodland, B. M. (1994). Market efficiency and the favorite-longshot bias: the baseball betting market. Journal of Finance, 49, 269-279.
Woodland, L. M. (1994). Market efficiency and the favourite-longshot bias: The baseball betting market. Journal of Finance, 49(1), 269-279