A STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF FIXED ODDS BETTING RULES IN SOCCER

Authors

  • Don J Webber Department of Economics, University of the West of England
  • Ian Milliner Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England
  • Paul White Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the West of England

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v3i1.543

Keywords:

Fixed odds betting rules, away win, bookmakers’ probabilities

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed.  One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite.  The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model.  Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds. 

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Published

2013-01-02

Issue

Section

Articles