A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITIES OF SOCCER GAME RESULTS
Keywords:Soccer Game, gambling
AbstractIn this paper, using Israeli soccer tournament results from 2009/2010 and an ordered dependent estimation model I calculated for each team, in each game played during the season, the a priori probability of a win, loss or a tie as a function of lag performance. Given these probabilities, the average probability that each team would end a game with a win, loss or a tie can be calculated.
Aitchison, J.& Silvey, S.D.'The Generalization of Probit Analysis to the case of multiple Responses' (1957) Biometrika. 44, 131–140
Baumeister, R. F.'Disputing the effects of championship pressures and home audiences' (1995) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 68, 644-648.
Bray, S. R.'The home advantage from an individual team perspective' (1999) Journal of Applied Sport Psychology. 11, 116-125.
Buraimo, B. & Forrest,D. & Simmons, R.'The twelfth man? Refereeing bias in English and German soccer' (2009) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.
Carmichael, F. & Thomas, D.'Home-field effect and team performance: Evidence from English Premiership Football' ( 2005) Journal of Sports Economics, 6, 264-281.
Carron, A. V. & Hausenblas, H. A.'Group dynamics in sport' ( 1998) (2nd ed). Morgantown, WV: Fitness Information Technology.
Carron, A. & Loughhead, V. & Bray, S. R.'The home advantage in sport competitions: Courneya and Carron's 1992 conceptual framework a decade later' (2005) Journal of Sports Sciences, 23, 395-407.
Chelladurai, P. 'Leadership in sports: A review' (1990) International Journal of Sport Psychology, 21, 328-354.
Courneya, K. S. & Carron, A. V.'The home advantage in sport competitions: A literature review' (1992) Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 14, 13-27.
Koppet, L.'Home court: Winning edge' (1972) New York Times, pp. 1, 3. Kornspan, A. S.
Moore, J. C. & Brylinsky, J.'Facility familiarity and the home advantage' (1995) Journal of Sport Behavior, 18,302-311.
Nevill, A. M. & Holder, R. L.'Home advantage in sport -An overview of studies on the advantage of playing at home' (1999) Sports Med, 28, 221-236.
Pace, A. & Carron, A. V.'Travel and the home advantage' (1992) Canadian Journal of Sport Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences du Sport, 17, 60-64.
Riemer, H. A.'Multidimensional model of coach leadership' (2007) In S. Jowett & D. Lavallee (Eds.), Social psychology in sport (pp. 5-74). Chicago, IL: Human Kinetics.