FORECASTING NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE GAME OUTCOMES RELATIVE TO BETTING SPREADS

Authors

  • William Mallios Mallios Associates

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v6i3.609

Keywords:

sports gambling markets, gambling shocks, market inefficiencies, forecasting playoff games, cointegrated time processes, time-varying coefficients, adaptive drift modeling

Abstract

Cointegrated time processes measuring NFL playoff game performances relative to the betting spreads are graphed in terms of candlestick charts and forecast in terms of autoregressive systems with time varying coefficients. Coefficients are modeled in terms of linear regressions on lagged shocks. Estimation is non Bayesian. Forecasts provide measures of market efficiency/inefficiency and outcome volatility. Risk assessment utilizes GARCH-type modeling in estimating volatility. Applications are presented for the New York Giants 2012 playoff games based on a data backlog of three years.

References

Ali M. Some evidence of the efficiency of a speculative market. Econometrica, 47: 387-92, 1979.

Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Economics, 31:307-327, 1986.

Brittan S. The overwhelming case for paying stealth taxes. Financial Times, 11/25/99.

Brooks D. The great seduction. New York Times, 6/10/08.

Dobra JL, Cargill TF, Meyers RA. Efficient markets for wagers: The case of professional basketball wagering. . In Sportsmetrics, B. Goff and R. Tollison, eds. Texas A&M University Press: College Station, 1990.

Engle, Robert F, Granger CWJ. Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276, 1997.

Fama EF. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance. 25: 383-423, 1970.

Figlewski S. Subjective information and market efficiency in a betting market. Journal of Political Economy. 87: 75-88, 1979.

Goff BL, Tollison RD. Sportsmetrics: present and future. In Sportsmetrics, B. Goff and R. Tollison, eds. Texas A&M University Press: College Station, 1990.

Granger CWJ, Anderson AP. An Introduction to Bilinear Time Series Models. Vandenhoeck&Ruprecht: Gottingen, 1978.

Granger CWJ, Morgenstern O. Predictability of Stock Market Prices. Heath Lexington: Lexington, MA, 1970

Higgins RS, Tollison RD. Economics at the track. In Sportsmetrics, B. Goff and R. Tollison, eds. Texas A&M University Press: College Station, 1990.

Jenkins GM, Alavi AS. Some aspects of modeling and forecasting multivariate time series. Journal of Time Series, 2:1-47, 1981.

Johansen S. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive Modeling. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 1995.

Kelly JL. A New Interpretation of Information Rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35: 917–926, 1956.

Keynes JM. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan: London, 1970.

Lacey NJ. Testing weak-form market efficiency in the NFL betting market. In Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking. W. Eadington, ed. Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Nevada-Reno: Reno, 1988.

MacKinnon JG. Critical values for cointegration tests. In RF Engle and CWJ Granger (eds), Long-run Economic Relationships in Cointegration. Oxford University Press: Oxford, Ch13, 267-76, 1991.

Mallios WS. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting. Kluwer: Boston/Dordrecht/London, 2000.

Mallios WS. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets. Wiley: NY, 2011.

Mallios WS. Dynamic modeling forecasts of equity price movements in cases of insider trading. Journal of Prediction Markets. 61: 1-30, 2012

Minke D. Betting games. Global Gaming Business Magazine, May 2012.

Nisson S. Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. NY Institute of Finance: NY, 1991.

Shiller R. Yale lecture on efficient market hypothesis. Shell Capital Management, LLC, 2012.

Song CU, Boulier BL, Stekler HO. Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions. International Journal of Forecasting, 26:3, 2010.

Tryfos P, Casey S, Cook S., Leger G, Pylypiak B. The profitability of wagering on NFL games. Management Science, 24: 123-32, 1984.

Vaughan Williams, L. 1999. Information efficiency in betting markets: A survey. Bulletin of Economic Research 51:1-30.

WagerMinds. Centaur Galileo Sports Betting Hedge Fund Collapses. 1/30/12.

West M, Harrison J. Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. Springer Verlag, 2nd Edition, 1997.

Published

2013-03-26

Issue

Section

Articles