Replacement Referees and NFL Betting Markets

Authors

  • Bryan C. McCannon Saint Bonaventure University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v9i2.983

Keywords:

betting markets, efficiency, over-under, replacement referees, spread

Abstract

Are betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices” in an uncertain environment. More points were scored and underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect even though irregularities in gambling markets were reported before the beginning of the season. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be identified.

Author Biography

Bryan C. McCannon, Saint Bonaventure University

Associate Professor of EconomicsChair, Department of Finance 

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Published

2015-10-06

Issue

Section

Articles