The SEC vs. the Dow Jones: A Profitable Betting Strategy in NCAA Football


  • Evan Moore Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Economics 7071 Senators Drive Montgomery, Alabama 36117
  • James Francisco Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Economics 7071 Senators Drive Montgomery, Alabama 36117



college football, financial markets, gambling, recreation


This article tests the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the profitability of a simple betting strategy in National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) college football. We examine all games that have a point spread, from September 2003 through January 2015, for inter-conference matches involving a Power Five/Automatic Qualifying (P5/AQ) team against a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponent. We further investigate one conference using these matches from 2016 through 2018 seasons. The betting strategy evidence suggests it is nonrandom and profitable to bet against the Southeastern Conference (SEC), despite its perceived status as the nation’s top conference.


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